Posted by: cvidal | July 3, 2008

Hey! you! Get off of my cloud

I have been meaning to get back to my thread on Too much of anything is not good.  A fellow blogger, Jeff Ventura, agreed that there may come a day when sites want to control traffic as aggressively as some countries are controlling their borders due to the billions of hits they receive each day.

“Eventually though, you’re right: there will be a way to determine grades of traffic flowing into your blog/whatever and treat them accordingly. It’ll be like QOS on the wire, only in terms of traffic flow management.”  – Jeff Ventura

As our mindset slowly starts to migrate to one of conservation I can see this naturally occurring in the way we make resource decisions on web sites.  Right now, there is a lot of talk about tiers of storage in my industry and the need to apply Information Life Cycle Management because you simply can’t keep up with the storage costs associated with your data growth. Keep the right data on the right storage at the right time and you have optimized your spend.

So, what if your web application sits up on a cloud platform like Heroku and you build it in such a way that you can provision different levels of service to different parts of the site or to different web services? People are doing this already with VMWare in a sense and a recent acquisition of VMWare, Thinstall, gave them the ability to migrate Applications from VM to VM as opposed to entire virtual servers from one set of hardware to another.

Back to my point about too much of anything is not good. There is an enormous amount of money on the planet and there are too few places for it to earn a good return. Prior to the credit crisis last year, the rates on short and long bonds was very low and even junk bonds were trading as if they were quality paper. The crisis was a wake up call that there is still a lot of risk regardless of the amount of money in the system oversubscribing to bonds, hedge funds, etc.

I believe that there needs to be a number of new investment vehicles introduced to take in all this money and the first place that looks like the new Dutch Tulip Bubble is the Carbon Markets that are being set up to trade credits in abstract pollution levels. While I think this is ridiculous it does serve the purpose of giving Carbon a price that is badly needed to give other alternate forms of energy a shot against coal. Where is the next major conduit for money to flow into?? Look around you – the roads, bridges, sewers, the entire public infrastructure needs to be rebuilt over the next 50 years.

If you believe this as strongly as I do, buy WAT (Waters Corp) that makes all kinds of infrastructure stuff. Home Depot had it right when they bought Hughes Supply and they were so stupid to let it go to a bunch of private investors. If HD Supply goes public again – BUY IT! Of course, if it goes public 25-30 years from now then that is probably the peak…those private investors know when the party is over. So, Alternative Energy and Infrastructure should do a good job of absorbing all this money and will create a whole new wave of people who got rich investing in stuff like Coca-Cola and Wal-Mart.

Now, somewhere in the middle of all this Enterprise 2.0 technology needs to compete for funds and the separation of wheat from chaff will happen with extreme prejudice. Either it will take a decade for it to play out via a slow trickle of VC money or it will be over in 24 months. Mick Jagger may have it right “Don’t hang around ’cause two’s a crowd”.

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